Despite winning a month-long reprieve from potentially devastating U.S. tariffs, there is a deep sense of anxiety hanging over some of the most senior Canadian government officials who manage the relationship with President Donald Trump.
After a roller coaster of a weekend that saw frenetic negotiations to stave off the threat of 25 per cent tariffs, there are serious concerns the Canada-U.S. relationship is only going to get worse from here.
And while Canadian officials are pleased Trump did not make good on his tariff promise for now, they are under no illusions that he will stop threatening Canada. There is an expectation he will wield his great economic power to extract all kinds of concessions out of his northern neighbour.
That is the general assessment after CBC News spoke with seven senior Canadian government sources, at the federal and provincial levels, in order to get a better understanding of what took place behind the scenes during the urgent push to avoid tariffs.
CBC News is not identifying the sources because they were not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive internal matters.
Friday, Jan. 31
Time was running out for Canada to convince the U.S. president to back away from imposing 25 per cent tariffs on his closest trading partners. While Donald Trump had made multiple threats since winning the election, he had only recently floated the idea of tariffs kicking in starting Feb. 1 for both Canada and Mexico.
For months, a politically diverse group of Canadian politicians, premiers, diplomats and business leaders worked their U.S. connections to try to convince Trump that tariffs will hurt Americans by making the cost of living more expensive.
So far, the campaign had not worked. On Friday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced from her podium that tariffs would in fact be coming, with all of the details to be made public Saturday.
That only intensified pressure on Canadian officials, who had a previously planned meeting with Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, in hopes that he could get a message through to the president and convince him to change course.
Homan agreed to meet in Washington, D.C., with Canada’s Ambassador Kirsten Hillman and three Canadian cabinet ministers: Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Public Safety Minister David McGuinty and Immigration Minister Marc Miller.
According to one senior Canadian government source, the delegation had an extensive presentation planned, including videos to show off border security changes. The source says they went into great detail to outline Canada’s previously announced $1.3-billion border plan, and repeatedly stressed to Homan’s team that Canada is open to any suggestions for further collaboration.
Homan and his staff, at least from the Canadian perspective, seemed to welcome the presentation. But as that meeting was taking place, a different message was emerging from the White House.
Trump summoned reporters into the Oval Office to witness him sign another round of executive orders. During this event, Trump confirmed tariffs were coming.
Canadians in the meeting with Homan were aware of Trump’s comments in real time, as they were receiving breaking news alerts on their phones.
Complicating matters, Trump has routinely offered a wide range of reasons for tariffs on Canada.
Trump has said if Canada becomes the 51st state, it would avoid tariffs. He’s also suggested the trade deficit needs to be balanced, often exaggerating its size. He’s said the U.S. does not need Canada’s collaboration in the auto sector.
None of this changed the primary Canadian message about the border. And as Homan left, he assured the Canadians he would pass on what he learned to the president himself.
Trump’s words only hardened the mood among Canadian officials that tariffs were inevitable, according to the source. But because Trump has a history of unpredictable behaviour, the Canadians tried to resist reacting until they had specific details in writing.
Saturday, Feb. 1
Official word about tariffs came Saturday morning. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, called Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc to confirm the news.
Lutnick outlined a few details, saying there would be 25 per cent blanket tariffs on all Canadian goods, with the exception of a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian energy.
Lutnick stressed the move was all about border security, and that if Canada retaliated, the tariffs could get even larger.
According to three senior Canadian government sources, Lutnick shared the Trump administration’s reasoning for including a retaliation clause. It echoed the president’s public comments that the tariffs are in response to illegal migration and drugs entering the U.S.
One source described that perspective as tough to counter, because Trump saw any tariffs from Canada as an escalation.
One senior Canadian government source said LeBlanc stressed to Lutnick that Canada would have no choice but to respond. Joly delivered the same message when she spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later that day.
Joly and Rubio stayed in contact by text message, and she asked if there was any way to change Trump’s mind.
The source said no one around the prime minister was surprised tariffs had officially been announced, given Trump’s repeated threats. Still, Canadian officials were deeply disappointed.
Now that details had officially been shared, senior officials in Ottawa started spreading the word. The prime minister chaired a cabinet meeting, and later organized a meeting with Canada’s premiers.
Two senior Canadian government sources say there was unity at both the federal and provincial levels when it came to outrage over Trump’s retaliation clause. Because Trump’s tariff plan was so sweeping, it pushed the Trudeau government to announce the largest and harshest response option available, the sources said.
Just after 9 p.m. ET, Trudeau addressed the country, announcing retaliatory tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods.
Sunday, Feb. 2
There was little optimism a trade war could be avoided, but Canadian officials still urgently searched for ways to offer Trump an off-ramp.
Hillman appeared on ABC’s This Week, telling host George Stephanopoulos that Canada was “ready to continue to talk to the Trump administration.”
“We’re hopeful they [tariffs] don’t come into effect on Tuesday,” Hillman said.
Behind the scenes, Canadian politicians and diplomats were ordered to reach out to U.S. connections at any level. A senior Canadian government source said they were asked to get the message out about how tariffs will make everyday life more expensive for Americans, and to share specifics about how the Canadian border is responsible for less than one per cent of illegal migrants and fentanyl seizures.
On top of that, they were urged to share details about Canada’s previously announced border security plan.
One source said Joly reached out to powerful republican lawmakers, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.
The day ended with a glimmer of hope for Canada. After trying to secure Trudeau a phone call with Trump since his inauguration, Canadian officials had finally set up a call for Monday morning. Mexico’s president, who was facing the same threat, also secured a call with Trump.
One senior Canadian government source said PMO staff spent the evening strategizing how to best make their case to Trump ahead of the crucial call, pulling from things he’d said publicly in the days leading up to the tariffs.
Hope for a breakthrough was tempered by Trump’s comments to reporters late Sunday evening. He took questions as he returned to Washington after a weekend away at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
“I don’t expect anything very dramatic,” he told reporters about the planned phone calls.
“We put tariffs on. They owe us a lot of money and I’m sure they’re going to pay.”
Monday, Feb. 3
The make-or-break moment had arrived. Trudeau would finally have his phone call with Trump, and Canada badly wanted some sort of resolution.
The conversation around 9 a.m. ET lasted 20 minutes. According to two senior Canadian government sources, Trudeau used the call to clarify data about the northern border and to impress upon Trump it does not pose the same types of challenges as the southern border.
Trudeau also walked the president through exactly what Canada was willing to do to improve security further.
Two senior government sources said the tone was respectful. But Trump continued to raise concerns about border security, and complained about longstanding trade irritants. Two sources said it was similar to what Trump said in public, including frustration about the trade deficit and the lack of access American banks have to the Canadian market.
One source said Canada did not offer anything new in this phone call, and while it ended without a resolution, Trump was at least willing to speak again later in the day. A second call was set for 3 p.m. ET. Canadian officials saw this as a good sign.
It appeared Trump was in a deal-making mood. He and Mexican President Claudia Shinebaum reached a separate agreement. Tariffs on Mexico would be delayed for a month, after Mexico promised to put 10,000 soldiers along the southern U.S. border. The troops will be used to crack down on illegal migration and drugs.
In the hours between the first and second Trump-Trudeau call, there was a flurry of activity, calls between ministers and staff about what could be said to dissuade Trump.
They discussed the possibility of naming a “czar” to tackle fentanyl — something that was not part of the Canadian tradition, but some staff thought it might be useful to persuade Trump.
When Trudeau and Trump spoke for the second time, two sources say the prime minister again emphasized the $1.3-billion border security plan, and introduced the idea of the czar. Two sources noted there wasn’t as much pushback from Trump in this call.
One said Trump also seemed to appreciate Canada’s pledge to have eyes on the border 24/7, new helicopters and the plan to put 10,000 front-line workers at the border.
Canada’s willingness to list drug cartels as terrorist organizations also seemed to appease Trump, since it showed Canadian officials were following his lead. Trump signed an executive order on that issue his first day in office.
After 45 minutes, the call ended with what Canada had hoped for: an agreement to delay tariffs for a month. The Trump administration and Trudeau government put out nearly identical statements on social media, roughly around the same time, confirming the news.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has opposed some elements of the federal government’s tariff strategy, and clashed with some of her provincial counterparts, welcomed the temporary reprieve.
“I was pleased to see there were some significant improvements in the package the prime minister put on the table,” she told CBC’s Power and Politics Tuesday, citing the additional spending and the new fentanyl czar position.
“That’s what the Americans wanted to see,” she told host David Cochrane. “We’ve got to demonstrate some serious action on the border.”
Two senior government sources said although Canada is pleased the tariffs did not kick in on Feb. 4 as planned, they do not think this fight is over.
They said Trump views tariffs as a tool to help rebuild the American manufacturing sector, and as a way to generate wealth. Even as he admits tariffs may cause some short-term pain, he has argued that in the long run it will be worth it.
U.S. President Donald Trump came back from the brink of a trade war by pausing tariffs against Canada and Mexico for 30 days — but what’s his ultimate goal? Andrew Chang breaks down what Trump says he still wants from Canada and what may really be at the heart of the tariff threats.
Photos supplied by The Canadian Press, Getty Images and Reuters.
“Nobody can compete with us because we’re the pot of gold,” Trump said of the U.S. economy in the Oval Office on Monday.
“When you’re the pot of gold the tariffs are, the tariffs are very good, they’re very powerful and they’re going to make our country very rich again.”
The senior sources fear that as the next tariff deadline approaches, Trump will make additional demands. The requests to improve border security are doable from the Canadian perspective. But there is concern he will ask for things that Canada simply cannot do.
A third senior government source thinks a push for additional defence spending will be the next major demand, pointing to a recent social media post from Vice-President JD Vance, which called out Canada for not meeting its NATO targets.
Finding a way for Canada to get out of this dynamic will be the next big challenge. Senior Canadian officials are bracing for a prolonged period of instability and anxiety.